EU Reaches 2025 Solar Target — But Market Slowdown Puts 2030 Goals at Risk

Europe hits 400 GW milestone, yet declining installations and weak rooftop demand threaten the path to 750 GW by 2030

The European Union has officially met its 2025 solar capacity target, reaching an estimated 406 GW of installed solar PV across the bloc. However, new data from SolarPower Europe’s EU Solar Market Outlook 2025–2030 reveals a concerning trend: the solar market has entered its first annual contraction since 2016, raising serious questions about Europe’s ability to meet its 2030 target of 750 GW.

In 2025, the EU installed 65.1 GW of new solar capacity, a 0.7% decline compared to the 65.6 GW added in 2024. While the drop may appear modest, it marks a symbolic turning point after nearly a decade of uninterrupted growth.

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A Milestone Achieved — But Momentum Is Slipping

The achievement of the 400 GW target set under the 2022 EU Solar Strategy represents a major success for Europe’s clean energy transition. Solar energy now supplies 13% of the EU’s total electricity consumption, and in June 2025, solar became Europe’s largest power source for the first time.

Yet the outlook beyond 2025 is less optimistic.

According to SolarPower Europe’s most likely scenario:

• Solar installations are expected to decline further in 2026 and 2027

• Growth will resume only in 2028–2029

• Annual installations are projected to return to ~67 GW by 2030

• Total installed capacity would reach ~718 GW, falling short of the 750 GW target

Residential Solar Collapse Weighs on the Market

One of the most significant contributors to the slowdown is the sharp decline in residential rooftop solar.

• In 2023, residential systems accounted for 28% of new EU solar capacity

• By 2025, this share had dropped to just 14%

The contraction reflects:

• The rollback of emergency rooftop support schemes after the energy crisis

• Reduced household urgency as energy prices stabilised

• Higher interest rates and cost-of-living pressures

This shift has fundamentally altered the market structure.

Utility-Scale Solar Takes the Lead — With New Risks

For the first time, utility-scale solar farms accounted for more than 50% of new installations in the EU. While this highlights strong investor interest in large-scale projects, it also exposes new vulnerabilities.

Standalone solar projects are increasingly affected by:

• Negative and zero pricing hours

• Revenue erosion in merchant markets

• Rising exposure to volatility without long-term PPAs

As a result, profitability — not deployment capacity — is becoming the limiting factor.

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Country Rankings: Stability at the Top, Change Below

Despite overall market shifts, the top solar markets remain largely unchanged:

• Germany and Spain retained their positions as the EU’s largest solar markets, driven mainly by utility-scale projects

• France overtook Italy to become the third-largest installer in 2025

• Italy’s rooftop market contracted sharply following the phase-out of incentives

Notably:

• Romania and Bulgaria entered the EU top 10 for the first time

• Romania recorded the fastest growth rate among major markets

• The Netherlands fell to eighth place, reflecting its cooling residential segment

Among the top ten markets, five installed less solar in 2025 than in 2024: Italy, Poland, Greece, the Netherlands, and Portugal.

What Must Change to Reach 2030 Targets?

SolarPower Europe warns that meeting the 2030 target will require structural policy action, not incremental adjustments.

Key recommendations include:

• Redefining energy security around renewable electrification

• Accelerating energy storage and system flexibility

• Streamlining permitting procedures

• Revitalising the rooftop solar segment

• Strengthening resilient and sustainable solar supply chains

As SolarPower Europe CEO Walburga Hemetsberger stated:

“We hit our 2025 solar target, but now for the first time, our 2030 target is falling out of reach. This interruption in growth comes at a pivotal moment when acceleration is essential.”

A Pivotal Decade for European Solar

The EU solar sector is no longer constrained by technology or ambition, but by market design, policy coherence, and system integration. Without decisive action on flexibility, storage, and electrification, solar’s ability to lead Europe’s energy transition could be compromised — even as capacity milestones are reached.

The next five years will determine whether Europe’s solar success story continues — or stalls at scale.