Slovenia Again Relies on Statistical Transfers to Meet Renewable Energy Targets

Slovenia has once again turned to a statistical transfer mechanism to meet its national renewable energy target, opting to purchase renewable electricity from Croatia rather than fully covering the shortfall through domestic generation. The move highlights a growing challenge faced by several EU member states: renewable targets are rising faster than national deployment of solar, wind, and energy storage infrastructure.

For the fourth time in the 2020–2024 period, Slovenia is using this EU-approved shortcut to remain compliant with renewable energy obligations—raising questions about long-term energy security, cost efficiency, and the urgency of accelerating domestic solar PV and energy storage deployment.

Slovenia Purchases 207 GWh of Renewable Energy from Croatia

To cover the gap in its 2024 renewable energy share, Slovenia will acquire 207 GWh of renewable electricity from Croatia through a statistical transfer. The transaction is valued at EUR 1.78 million, corresponding to a price of EUR 8.60 per MWh, according to Žurnal24.

Despite progress in previous years, Slovenia reached only 24.6% renewable energy share in gross final consumption in 2024—just below the 25% national target. The shortfall is modest in percentage terms, but it is enough to trigger compliance action under EU rules.

Statistical transfers are permitted under EU legislation to help member states meet binding renewable targets without physical electricity flows. However, they do not increase domestic renewable capacity, grid resilience, or long-term energy independence.

Fourth Statistical Transfer Since 2020

This is not an isolated case. Slovenia has repeatedly relied on statistical transfers over the past five years:

• 2020:

  • Purchased 465 GWh from the Czech Republic

  • Cost: EUR 5 million

• 2021:

  • Purchased 208 GWh from the Czech Republic

  • Cost: EUR 2 million

• 2022:

  • Purchased 1,193 GWh from Croatia

  • Cost: EUR 10.8 million

• 2024:

  • Purchasing 207 GWh from Croatia

  • Cost: EUR 1.78 million

In total, nearly EUR 20 million has been spent on statistical transfers since 2020, with Czechia and Croatia benefiting financially from Slovenia’s repeated shortfalls.

Renewable Support Funds Cover the Cost

The Slovenian government financed these transfers through renewable energy support funds, managed by electricity market operator Borzen. While this approach ensures regulatory compliance, it diverts funds that could otherwise be invested in:

• Solar panel installations

• Solar inverter infrastructure

• Energy storage systems

• Grid modernization projects

From an energy policy perspective, this raises concerns about opportunity cost—money spent abroad rather than strengthening Slovenia’s domestic renewable ecosystem.

Fossil Fuel Consumption Undermined 2024 Targets

According to the Ministry of Environment, Climate and Energy, Slovenia’s failure to meet the 2024 renewable target was largely due to a rise in fossil fuel consumption, which increased by 1 TWh compared to 2023.

This trend reflects a broader European challenge:

• Electrification is progressing unevenly

• Fossil fuels remain a fallback during peak demand

• Renewable deployment is not scaling fast enough

Without sufficient solar PV capacity, energy storage, and flexible generation, fossil fuels continue to erode renewable shares—even when clean energy production increases in absolute terms.

The Real Challenge Starts Now: 33% Renewable Target Ahead

The situation becomes more critical looking ahead. Under Slovenia’s National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP), the minimum renewable energy share required from 2030 onward is 33%.

To avoid further statistical transfers, Slovenia must increase its renewable share by:

• At least 1.6 percentage points per year on average over the next five years

This is a steep trajectory that will be difficult to achieve without a rapid acceleration of solar energy, wind power, and energy storage deployment.

Why Statistical Transfers Are Not a Sustainable Solution

While legal and effective in the short term, statistical transfers come with clear limitations:

• No new domestic renewable capacity

• No improvement in grid stability

• No reduction in long-term energy costs

• No local economic or job creation

In contrast, investments in solar panels, solar inverters, energy storage systems, and complete solar kits deliver lasting benefits across the entire energy value chain.

Solar and Energy Storage: The Missed Opportunity

Slovenia has strong potential for:

• Rooftop solar PV

• Commercial and industrial solar installations

• Solar + battery hybrid systems

• Community energy projects

By expanding energy storage, Slovenia could also address one of the root causes of renewable underperformance: mismatch between production and consumption.

Energy storage enables:

• Higher self-consumption

• Peak shaving

• Reduced fossil backup

• Greater renewable penetration

For solar installers, EPCs, and solar wholesalers, this represents an untapped market that could reduce Slovenia’s reliance on foreign renewable credits.

Solar&Solar Perspective: Build Capacity, Not Compliance Shortcuts

From a Solar&Solar perspective, Slovenia’s repeated use of statistical transfers sends a clear message: compliance without capacity is costly.

Instead of spending tens of millions of euros abroad, the country could:

• Expand domestic solar PV capacity

• Deploy grid-scale and distributed energy storage

• Strengthen energy independence

• Stabilize electricity prices

As EU renewable targets continue to rise, countries that fail to invest in solar energy and energy storage infrastructure will face increasing financial pressure—and lost industrial competitiveness.

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